Modest interest rate cuts expected to spur activity next year, leading to a rise in property prices

In the wake of several turbulent years, Canada’s housing market might finally stabilize in the coming year, showing signs of a return to more conventional activity and pricing patterns. Projections suggest that the Bank of Canada will likely reduce its overnight lending rate in the latter part of 2024. This move is expected to reignite interest among sidelined buyers, who are adapting to the current lending landscape. Additionally, the formation of new households and the influx of newcomers to Canada are poised to further push prices upward.

Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage, expressed, “Looking ahead, we see 2024 as a critical turning point for the national economy, with many Canadians acknowledging the end of the ultra-low interest rate era. The adjustment to manageable borrowing costs in the mid-single-digit range will strongly influence our collective mindset, especially with the modest rate cuts anticipated from the Bank of Canada.”

As per the Royal LePage 2024 Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate home price in Canada is projected to rise by 5.5% year over year, reaching $843,684 in the fourth quarter of 2024. The median price for a single-family detached property is expected to climb by 6.0% to $879,164, while condominiums are forecasted to see a 5.0% increase, reaching $616,140.

Royal LePage's forecast hinges on the assumption that the Bank of Canada has completed its interest rate hike cycle and that the key lending rate will remain stable at five percent through the initial half of 2024. The anticipation is for the central bank to initiate modest rate cuts by late summer or fall. Concurrently, several major financial institutions have already begun offering discounts on fixed-rate mortgages.

Soper reflected on the housing market’s recent tumultuous journey, stating, “Canada's real estate market has undergone a roller coaster ride over the past four years. The global pandemic initially halted market activity in early 2020, but a subsequent surge in demand and price appreciation followed as Canadians sought safety and larger living spaces amidst global uncertainty.” He continued, “By spring 2022, home prices had soared to unprecedented levels. However, the swift and steep rise in interest rates to combat inflation triggered an extended market correction.”

The expectation is for a gradual adjustment in markets, with a move toward more typical home sale transaction levels in 2024 and a subsequent trend of appreciating house prices as the year progresses. Nationally, modest quarterly gains in home prices are foreseen for the first two quarters of 2024, with more pronounced increases expected in the latter half of the year, coinciding with the anticipated commencement of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.


Despite softening activity, Canada’s winter recreational property market is expected to see price gains in 2024

Nationally, median house price forecast to rise 2.9% in 2024 as interest rates are expected to stabilize or moderate

The winter housing market in Canada's recreational areas has shown a decline in activity compared to the peak seen during the pandemic. Fewer buyers are making purchases, and there's a slight increase in available properties. This slowdown is attributed to concerns about higher interest rates and increased living costs. Despite these factors, property prices in these coveted winter destinations are anticipated to experience a slight rise, with borrowing rates expected to either stabilize or slightly decrease in the coming year.

The Royal LePage 2023 Winter Recreational Property Report forecasts a 2.9% increase in the median price of single-family detached homes in Canada's ski regions over the next 12 months, reaching $1,099,661. This projection is based on the assumption of stable interest rates or a modest decline extending through 2024.

Pauline Aunger, the broker of record at Royal LePage Advantage Real Estate, notes, "Recreational house prices in Canada’s popular ski regions are expected to remain stable in the year ahead. While demand has weakened and supply has increased compared to the pandemic-fueled boom, market activity is trending back to normal historical levels."

Despite a modest decline in home prices in ski regions since the beginning of 2023 due to softened buyer demand, the decrease hasn't been substantial. Factors contributing to this decline include higher interest rates, increased living expenses, and economic uncertainty.

Aunger emphasizes, "Although recreational real estate markets vary greatly from one region to the next, activity on the whole in Canada’s winter recreational communities has noticeably slowed. Annual sales are down in most regions and inventory has climbed modestly as the market continues to regain balance. This has not, however, translated to steep price declines in a majority of markets."

The report highlights that despite a decline in buyer demand due to environmental factors like wildfires, and an increase in available properties caused by rising interest rates, certain regions like Quebec's Mont Sutton and B.C.'s Mount Washington/Comox Valley have seen substantial median price gains in the single-family detached segment.

In addition, Mont Sainte-Anne in Quebec recorded a significant 83.4% increase in year-over-year median condominium prices due to a variety of property styles, price points, and limited inventory.

Highlights from the national release:

24% of Royal LePage recreational property market experts reported a decline in buyer demand this year as a result of climate factors or environmental disasters, following unprecedented wildfire season

41% of experts reported an increase in inventory as a direct result of rising interest rates

Quebec’s Mont Sutton and B.C.’s Mount Washington/Comox Valley regions recorded highest median price gain in single-family detached segment, increasing 27.3% and 26.5% respectively, year over year

Mont Sainte-Anne in Quebec recorded an 83.4% increase in year-over-year median condominium price; sharp gains reflect wide range in property styles and price points, and scarcity of inventory

Read Royal LePage’s 2023 Winter Recreational Property Report for national and regional insights.

Highlights from the national release:

  • 24% of Royal LePage recreational property market experts reported a decline in buyer demand this year as a result of climate factors or environmental disasters, following unprecedented wildfire season

  • 41% of experts reported an increase in inventory as a direct result of rising interest rates

  • Quebec’s Mont Sutton and B.C.’s Mount Washington/Comox Valley regions recorded highest median price gain in single-family detached segment, increasing 27.3% and 26.5% respectively, year over year

  • Mont Sainte-Anne in Quebec recorded an 83.4% increase in year-over-year median condominium price; sharp gains reflect wide range in property styles and price points, and scarcity of inventory


Ottawa MLS® Home Sales Stable in November Amid Growing Supply

In November 2023, the Ottawa Real Estate Board reported 724 homes sold via the MLS® System, showing a slight dip of 1.6% from the same period in 2022. This trend continued with home sales 31.8% under the five-year average and 27.4% below the 10-year average for November.

Throughout the year, a total of 11,421 homes were sold, marking an 11.7% decrease from the previous year's figures.

By the Numbers – Prices:

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

  • The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $628,900 in November 2023, nearly unchanged, up only 1.4% from November 2022.

    1. The benchmark price for single-family homes was $708,900, up 1.6% on a year-over-year.

    2. By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse was $492,300, nearly unchanged, up 0.8% compared to a year earlier.

    3. The benchmark apartment price was $424,300, up 1.2% from year-ago levels.

  • The average price of homes sold in November 2023 was $633,138, decreasing 0.8% from November 2022. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $669,536, a decline of 5.7% from 11 months of 2022.

  • The dollar value of all home sales in November 2023 was $458.4 million, down 2.4% from the same month in 2022.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:

  • The number of new listings saw an increase of 2.7% from November 2022. There were 1,428 new residential listings in November 2023. New listings were 8.4% above the five-year average and 10.4% above the 10-year average for the month of November.

  • Active residential listings numbered 2,752 units on the market at the end of November, a gain of 15.8% from the end of November 2022.

  • Active listings were 53.9% above the five-year average and 6.7% below the 10-year average for the month of November.

  • Months of inventory numbered 3.8 at the end of November 2023, up from the 3.2 months recorded at the end of November 2022. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.


Emphasize the “Outdoor Living” Potential of your Home

Outdoor living spaces have become the new heartbeat of homes — even in the winter. They now serve as an extension of the indoors, a place where homeowners can dine, entertain, and relax. So, it’s smart to emphasize the outdoor living potential of your home when you list.

Your garden is the first outdoor element potential buyers see. Well-maintained, colourful plants can make a fantastic first impression, so keep the garden lush and appealing. Include a variety of perennial and annual plants that bloom at different times in the season. Consider planting in containers or raised beds for easy maintenance, and use garden ornaments sparingly to keep the focus on the natural beauty of the space.

Next, your patio or deck can act as an outdoor living room. Consider staging it to make it look that way. Highlight any attractive, weather-resistant furniture you have. String lights or solar lanterns add a touch of warmth and make the space usable even after the sun sets.

And don’t forget about your barbecue or outdoor kitchen. A well-equipped, clean, and functional outdoor cooking area can be a big draw. Ensure grills, burners, and other cooking appliances are in good condition.

Finally, remember that not all outdoor spaces need to be elaborate. Sometimes, simple lawn chairs or a modest patio set can add to the appeal. The key is to make the outdoor space inviting, no matter how small it is.

One last tip: If you plan to list during winter, ensure you have pictures of your outdoor space during good weather, ideally in summer. Those will be a helpful addition to the listing materials. 


Choosing the Ideal Paint Colour when Preparing your Home for Sale

Painting your home, especially the main floor, is the most affordable way to make your listing look great to buyers. But what paint colours should you choose?

Here are a few tips.

When it comes to selecting a palette, neutrality reigns supreme. Bright, eccentric colours may reflect your personality, but remember, you're trying to appeal to a wide array of potential buyers. Neutral colours like whites, greys, and beiges are not only safe but also allow buyers to envision their own furniture and decor in the space.

However, don't think of neutral as boring. Many subtle shades can add depth and character to a room. For example, a soft grey with a hint of blue can make a space feel serene and relaxing, and is ideal for bathrooms or bedrooms.

The living room and kitchen are often social hubs of a home, and warmer neutrals can make these spaces feel welcoming. Shades like taupe or a creamy off-white can make these areas inviting yet versatile.

Lastly, remember to take lighting into account. The way a colour appears can dramatically change under different lighting conditions. Always test paint samples under various light conditions before committing.

Check out the 2024 paint colour & decor trends here!


Are you ready to bring a burst of colour and personality into your home in the year ahead?

Here are the Top Paint Colour Trends You’ll See Everywhere in 2024

It’s official: a fresh assortment of hues have arrived to ring in the year ahead. From warm corals to deep greens and rich yellows, these paint colours will be adorning interior walls everywhere in 2024. So, get out your brushes and rollers and paint the rainbow.

Into the Deep

Mid-century modern living room painted in a deep black hue

Meet Behr’s 2024 Colour of The Year — Cracked Pepper. Bold and luxurious, yet warm and inviting, this high-impact hue is surprising versatile. When thoughtfully employed, it can conform to any interior space or design style.

Moody Blues

Elevate Your Space: Sherwin Williams Color of the Year 2024 - Upward SW 6239

Calm and clear, this moody blue paint colour pulls its hues from the world around us. Look for a deep, dreamy blue that reminds you of the sky at dusk or the depths of the ocean. (Yep, we’re getting poetic over here.

Meet Sherwin Williams 2024 Colour of The Year — Upward. A breezy, blissful blue. The color found when we slow down, take a breath, and allow the mind to clear. Relaxed + Carefree. A sunny-day shade for spaces brimming with positive energy, creative thinking, and total contentment.

Bet on Brown

Yep, we’re going to say it: brown is the new black. A deep, rich brown paint colour gives a similar sophisticated feel as black paint — but with warmth.

Modern living room with rich brown walls

Yep, we’re going to say it: brown is the new black. A deep, rich brown paint colour gives a similar sophisticated feel as black paint — but with warmth.

Organic Textures

Vancouver Island home renovated by designer Tracey Ayton as featured on HGTV Canada featuring white painted brick walls and shiplap ceiling, white shutters and a black metal ceiling pendant light.

In 2024, one painting trend we’re going to see is the rise of organic, textured walls — either by adding plaster and painting or letting the original underneath material shine through. Here, we can still see the grain of the shiplap ceiling and the peaks and troughs of the brick.

Dark(er) Materials

A wall painted in Benjamin Moore Bleeker Beige HC-80, a medium buff hue with pleasing gray undertones, with a bench holding three black vases

Neutrals are always going to have their place in the pantheon of paint colours, but for 2024, we expect that they’re going dark.

Think Pink

Dulux - 2024 Paint Colour Trends

Think pink will be passé next year? Think again. In 2024, this paint colour will be everywhere. Mauve, salmon and coral have long been desirable accent colours, but now they’re taking centre stage as the stars of the show.

Nature’s Pastels

Pulling inspiration from those quiet spots found in nature, this paint-colour trend is all about tranquility. Watery blues, soft sages and warm sunshine, these soft, milky pastels help create a space that prioritizes serenity.

Green Dreams

Lemon Sorbet and Ocean Blue – Color Trends for 2013 | Courtland Building  Company, Inc.

As an on-trend paint colour, green’s star has been on the rise. But in 2024, we predict it’s going to hit new (vibrant) heights… with an injection of yellow. Green citrine and pear, these bold yellowy greens are fresh and fun — something we’re all craving right now!

Berry Compote

Even if you don’t have your own berry patch, with this rich-raspberry paint trend you can still enjoy the fruits of your labour. Easy to pair with wood tones, creams and browns.

Sunbaked Beauties

Paint Colour Trends You'll See Everywhere in 2024

With a blend of creamy terracotta, saffron and dried citrus fruits, this on-trend paint palette exudes warmth and wellness. For the ideal base colour for this sunbaked look.

Emerald Empire

Home décor renovation designed by David Strongman of an office space with wide plank wood floors, a large wall mirror, white door, wooden desk, white desk chair, and a corkboard on a wall painted in emerald green as featured on HGTV Canada

Emerald green, with its bold, saturated tones, is right on track to be the latest green to rule the decor scene. Tranquil and luxurious, this gem-inspired green is a great choice for an accent wall or creating depth in a smaller space.

Even More Yellow

Chic living room with an orange leather couch, wooden credenza topped with vases and an abstract painting, grey fireplace, glass coffee table and walls painted in Dunn-Edwards Paints Honey Glow (DE5354)

We’re all hoping for sunnier days ahead, and no colour is more optimistic than yellow. With bold gold, sunshine yellow and butter beige all being trending paint colour options for our interior walls, the future is bright.

There you have it! As we prepare to embrace the coming year, the canvas of interior design awaits its colourful transformation. With an eclectic palette ranging from bold, daring hues to soothing, nature-inspired tones, 2024 promises an artistic celebration of diversity and expression within our living spaces. Whether you're drawn to the depths of moody blues, the warmth of organic textures, or the vibrant optimism of yellows, this year's paint trends offer a spectrum of possibilities. So, pick up those brushes, let your imagination flow, and paint a vibrant narrative that reflects the essence of the times within the walls of your home. Here's to a year filled with colour, creativity, and the endless possibilities that await in the world of interior design.


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