In its latest interest rate announcement, the Bank of Canada has chosen to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate set at 3.00% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

This decision comes amid significant shifts in U.S. trade policy and growing uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which have collectively dampened global and domestic economic growth prospects while increasing inflation expectations. The April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) addresses this uncertainty by outlining two possible scenarios for U.S. trade policy moving forward.

• In the first scenario, trade uncertainty remains high but tariffs are limited in scope. Under these conditions, Canadian economic growth is expected to weaken temporarily, while inflation holds close to the 2% target.

• In the second scenario, a prolonged trade war drives the Canadian economy into recession this year, with inflation projected to rise temporarily above 3% in 2026.

The Bank notes that various trade policy outcomes are possible, and the level of uncertainty—both in terms of potential scenarios and their outcomes—is unusually high due to the rapid and unprecedented shifts in U.S. trade policy.

Globally, economic growth was solid at the end of 2024, and inflation had been easing towards central bank targets. However, rising trade tensions have since weighed heavily on the outlook. In the United States, signs of economic slowing have emerged amid elevated policy uncertainty and declining market sentiment. Inflation expectations have also risen. Meanwhile, euro area growth has been modest in early 2025, particularly impacted by a sluggish manufacturing sector. In China, the economy ended 2024 strong but has shown signs of slowing more recently.

Financial markets have experienced significant volatility due to ongoing tariff announcements, delays, and persistent threats of escalation. This turbulence has only added to existing uncertainty. Since January, oil prices have dropped significantly, driven largely by downgraded global growth expectations. The Canadian dollar has appreciated recently, primarily due to a broader weakening of the U.S. dollar.

Domestically, Canada’s economy is also feeling the impact. Tariff-related uncertainty has eroded both consumer and business confidence, contributing to weakness in consumer spending, residential investment, and business capital expenditures in the first quarter. The labour market recovery has also been disrupted, with a reported decline in employment in March and indications from businesses that hiring will slow. Wage growth is showing continued signs of moderation.

Inflation measured at 2.3% in March, slightly lower than February, but still up from 1.8% in January. This increase is largely attributed to a rebound in goods prices and the conclusion of the temporary GST/HST suspension. Looking ahead, the removal of the consumer carbon tax in April is expected to suppress CPI inflation over the next year. Additionally, lower global oil prices will exert downward pressure on inflation. However, tariffs and supply chain disruptions could push certain prices higher. The extent of this impact will depend on how tariffs evolve and how quickly businesses pass increased costs onto consumers. While short-term inflation expectations have risen, long-term expectations remain relatively unchanged.

The Bank’s Governing Council will continue to evaluate both the downward pressures on inflation arising from a slowing economy and the upward pressures caused by higher input costs. The primary focus remains on maintaining price stability and ensuring Canadians retain confidence in the central bank’s ability to manage inflation.

As we navigate this period of heightened global volatility, the Bank of Canada is proceeding cautiously, paying close attention to a range of economic risks. These include:

• The potential reduction in demand for Canadian exports due to higher tariffs,

• The possible knock-on effects on business investment, employment, and household spending,

• The speed and extent to which businesses pass increased costs to consumers, and

• The evolution of inflation expectations.

While monetary policy cannot directly resolve trade uncertainty, it plays a crucial role in safeguarding price stability and supporting economic resilience during challenging times.

Source: bankofcanada.ca

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape.

After a period of solid growth, the US economy looks to have slowed in recent months. US inflation remains slightly above target. Economic growth in the euro zone was modest in late 2024. China’s economy has posted strong gains, supported by government policies. Equity prices have fallen and bond yields have eased on market expectations of weaker North American growth. Oil prices have been volatile and are trading below the assumptions in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian dollar is broadly unchanged against the US dollar but weaker against other currencies.

Canada’s economy grew by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. This growth path is stronger than was expected at the time of the January MPR. Past cuts to interest rates have boosted economic activity, particularly consumption and housing. However, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in business spending as companies postpone or cancel investments. The negative impact of slowing domestic demand has been partially offset by a surge in exports in advance of tariffs being imposed.

Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.

Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.

While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest. Against this background, and with inflation close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 25 basis points.

Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation. Governing Council will be carefully assessing the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

Source: www.bankofcanada.ca

The Bank of Canada has announced a reduction in its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate set at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%. Additionally, the Bank has outlined its plan to finalize the normalization of its balance sheet by ending quantitative tightening. Asset purchases will resume in early March, with a gradual approach to ensure the balance sheet stabilizes before experiencing modest growth in line with economic expansion.

The January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) highlights an increased level of uncertainty in its projections due to the rapidly shifting policy landscape, particularly regarding potential trade tariffs from the new U.S. administration. Because the extent and duration of a possible trade conflict remain uncertain, the report presents a baseline forecast that assumes no new tariffs.

According to the MPR, the global economy is projected to maintain growth at approximately 3% over the next two years. U.S. economic growth has been revised upward, primarily due to stronger consumer spending. In contrast, growth in the eurozone is expected to remain sluggish due to competitiveness challenges. In China, recent policy measures are supporting short-term demand and economic expansion, though structural challenges persist.

Since October, financial conditions have diverged internationally. U.S. bond yields have risen, driven by solid economic growth and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, Canadian bond yields have declined slightly. The Canadian dollar has weakened significantly against the U.S. dollar, largely due to trade uncertainty and overall strength in the U.S. currency. Oil prices have been volatile, rising by about $5 above the levels anticipated in the October MPR.

In Canada, previous interest rate cuts have already started stimulating the economy, and the momentum in consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak, while exports are benefiting from expanded oil and gas export capacity.

The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% as of December. While job growth has improved in recent months, it had previously lagged behind labour force expansion for over a year. Wage pressures, which had been persistently high, are now showing early signs of easing.

The Bank anticipates that GDP growth will strengthen in 2025. However, given reduced immigration targets, both actual GDP growth and potential growth are expected to be more moderate than previous forecasts in October. Following an anticipated GDP growth rate of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP growth of 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026—a rate that slightly exceeds potential growth. Consequently, excess supply in the economy is projected to diminish gradually over time.

Inflation remains close to 2%, though fluctuations are occurring due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on certain consumer goods. While shelter price inflation remains high, it is gradually declining as anticipated. Various economic indicators, including inflation expectation surveys and price change trends within the CPI, suggest that underlying inflation is stabilizing around 2%. The Bank projects that CPI inflation will remain near its 2% target over the next two years.

Excluding potential U.S. trade tariffs, the economic outlook maintains a relatively balanced level of risks. However, the MPR warns that a prolonged trade dispute could result in lower GDP growth and higher consumer prices in Canada.

Given inflation stabilizing around 2% and an economy operating with excess supply, the Governing Council has decided to cut the policy rate by another 25 basis points to 3%. Since last June, the cumulative rate cuts have been significant. Lower interest rates are already stimulating household spending, and based on today's projections, the economy is expected to gradually strengthen while inflation remains stable. However, if significant trade tariffs were to be implemented, Canada's economic resilience would be put to the test.

The Bank will closely monitor economic developments and assess their impact on inflation and monetary policy. It remains dedicated to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

With the Bank of Canada lowering its policy rate to 3%, now is the time to assess your real estate plans. Whether you're buying, selling, or refinancing, lower rates could open new opportunities. Let’s discuss how this impacts your goals—contact us today!

A total of 613 homes were sold in December 2024 via the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB), representing a 7.9% increase from December 2023.

Despite this rise, home sales were 6.8% below the five-year average and 2.7% lower than the 10-year average for December. Year-to-date sales reached 13,526 units by December 2024, an 11.8% increase from the same period in 2023.

“A year of wait-and-see came to a close with the expected slowdown over the holiday season,” said OREB President Paul Czan. “The latter half of the year brought signs of more favourable market conditions with consecutive interest rate drops, higher insured mortgage limits, and extended amortizations. It’s early to assess the impact of these measures. And it’s an uphill battle against affordability and supply issues that persist.”

“Listing activity indicates that sellers anticipate improved conditions could spur more activity from buyers who have been keeping a close eye on the market but hesitant to make moves. Buyers are still limited in their selection of affordable inventory that can meet current demands, which stalls movement. While the improving market conditions are encouraging, the supply needs to be there. Coming political shifts are adding a layer of uncertainty but there is a trending optimism for more increased market activity in the months ahead.”

By the Numbers – Prices

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), which tracks price trends more accurately than average or median prices, highlighted the following:

• The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $645,800 in December 2024, up 3.8% from December 2023.

  • Single-family homes: $729,300, an increase of 3.7% year-over-year.

  • Townhouse/row units: $533,200, up 11.3% from a year ago.

  • Apartments: $404,400, down 2.5% compared to December 2023.

• The average sale price in December 2024 was $663,781, a 4.4% increase from December 2023.

• Year-to-date, the average price was $679,067, rising 1.3% compared to 2023.

• The total dollar volume of home sales in December 2024 was $406.9 million, up 12.7% year-over-year. For the entire year, the total dollar volume reached $9.2 billion, an increase of 13.3% from 2023.

OREB cautions that while average sale prices offer insight into market trends over time, they do not reflect changes in the value of individual properties. Average price calculations are derived from the total dollar volume of all properties sold, with prices varying significantly by neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings

• New listings: 603 new residential properties were added in December 2024, marking a 13.6% increase from December 2023. This was 3.5% above the five-year average but 2.7% below the 10-year average for December.

• Active listings: Residential listings totalled 3,216 units at the end of December 2024, a surge of 58.7% compared to December 2023. Active listings were 90% above the five-year average and 51.4% above the 10-year average for the month.

• Months of inventory: There were 5.2 months of inventory at the end of December 2024, compared to 3.6 months in December 2023. This metric reflects the time it would take to sell all current inventory at the current sales pace.

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3¾% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar.

In Canada, the economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.

A number of policy measures have been announced that will affect the outlook for near-term growth and inflation in Canada. Reductions in targeted immigration levels suggest GDP growth next year will be below the Bank’s October forecast. The effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens both demand and supply. Other federal and provincial policies—including a temporary suspension of the GST on some consumer products, one-time payments to individuals, and changes to mortgage rules—will affect the dynamics of demand and inflation. The Bank will look through effects that are temporary and focus on underlying trends to guide its policy decisions.

In addition, the possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.

CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer, and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected. Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. Measures of core inflation will help us assess the trend in CPI inflation.

With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range. Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June. Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. Our decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 29, 2025.

Source: bankofcanada.ca