A total of 613 homes were sold in December 2024 via the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB), representing a 7.9% increase from December 2023.

Despite this rise, home sales were 6.8% below the five-year average and 2.7% lower than the 10-year average for December. Year-to-date sales reached 13,526 units by December 2024, an 11.8% increase from the same period in 2023.

“A year of wait-and-see came to a close with the expected slowdown over the holiday season,” said OREB President Paul Czan. “The latter half of the year brought signs of more favourable market conditions with consecutive interest rate drops, higher insured mortgage limits, and extended amortizations. It’s early to assess the impact of these measures. And it’s an uphill battle against affordability and supply issues that persist.”

“Listing activity indicates that sellers anticipate improved conditions could spur more activity from buyers who have been keeping a close eye on the market but hesitant to make moves. Buyers are still limited in their selection of affordable inventory that can meet current demands, which stalls movement. While the improving market conditions are encouraging, the supply needs to be there. Coming political shifts are adding a layer of uncertainty but there is a trending optimism for more increased market activity in the months ahead.”

By the Numbers – Prices

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), which tracks price trends more accurately than average or median prices, highlighted the following:

• The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $645,800 in December 2024, up 3.8% from December 2023.

  • Single-family homes: $729,300, an increase of 3.7% year-over-year.

  • Townhouse/row units: $533,200, up 11.3% from a year ago.

  • Apartments: $404,400, down 2.5% compared to December 2023.

• The average sale price in December 2024 was $663,781, a 4.4% increase from December 2023.

• Year-to-date, the average price was $679,067, rising 1.3% compared to 2023.

• The total dollar volume of home sales in December 2024 was $406.9 million, up 12.7% year-over-year. For the entire year, the total dollar volume reached $9.2 billion, an increase of 13.3% from 2023.

OREB cautions that while average sale prices offer insight into market trends over time, they do not reflect changes in the value of individual properties. Average price calculations are derived from the total dollar volume of all properties sold, with prices varying significantly by neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings

• New listings: 603 new residential properties were added in December 2024, marking a 13.6% increase from December 2023. This was 3.5% above the five-year average but 2.7% below the 10-year average for December.

• Active listings: Residential listings totalled 3,216 units at the end of December 2024, a surge of 58.7% compared to December 2023. Active listings were 90% above the five-year average and 51.4% above the 10-year average for the month.

• Months of inventory: There were 5.2 months of inventory at the end of December 2024, compared to 3.6 months in December 2023. This metric reflects the time it would take to sell all current inventory at the current sales pace.

In recent years, the Canadian housing market has experienced significant disruptions. A global pandemic, surging interest rates, and economic challenges caused the market to deviate from typical patterns. However, 2025 is anticipated to see a return to conditions more aligned with long-term historical trends.

The Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast projects that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will rise by 6.0% year-over-year, reaching $856,692 in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median price of a single-family detached home is expected to grow by 7.0% to $900,833, while condominiums are forecasted to see a 3.5% increase, reaching $605,993.

“After several years of unusual volatility in the real estate market, key indicators point to a return to stability in 2025. The backlog of willing and able buyers continues to grow, and upcoming changes to mortgage lending rules will further enhance Canadians’ borrowing power,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage. “Most notably, the Bank of Canada’s shift from ‘inflation fighter’ to ‘economy booster’ has taken time to influence buyer behaviour. We saw a marked increase in market activity at the start of the fourth quarter, following the Bank of Canada’s 50-basis-point rate cut. Buyers now believe home prices have hit bottom and are eager to act before competition intensifies.”

New Lending Rules to Enhance Borrowing Power

New lending regulations taking effect this month will provide improved accessibility for first-time buyers and existing homeowners. Starting December 15th, eligibility for 30-year amortizations on insured mortgages will expand to include all first-time buyers and purchasers of new construction homes, an increase from the current 25-year limit. Additionally, the mortgage insurance cap will rise from $1 million to $1.5 million, enabling buyers with less than a 20% down payment to consider higher-value properties. These changes will be especially impactful in Canada’s most expensive real estate markets, where average home prices often exceed $1 million.

“Improved lending conditions, combined with declining interest rates, will unlock new housing opportunities for many Canadians in the new year. First-time buyers will be the primary beneficiaries of these initiatives, as their ability to borrow more for less with a smaller down payment will help bring them closer to their first home purchase,” said Soper. “We believe the return of buyers to the market will encourage builders and trigger a wave of new supply, which is very much needed.

“Addressing Canada’s critical housing shortage must remain a top priority for policymakers at every level of government. With our population growing rapidly through both natural increases and immigration, it is essential to stay focused on supporting the development of new homes if we hope to address housing affordability, be it for purchase or rent.”

Shifting Political Landscapes and Potential Housing Impacts

The year 2025 is expected to bring political changes in both Canada and the United States, with potential implications for the housing market. In Canada, a federal election may introduce new housing policies that could temporarily influence market activity in the latter half of the year.

“With an election approaching in Ottawa and a new administration preparing to take office in Washington, the housing market faces potential disruptions. Here at home, a federal election will see new housing policies that may temporarily impact market activity in the second half of 2025,” said Soper. “Meanwhile, south of the border, the incoming Trump administration’s trade policies and broader economic agenda have the potential to create ripple effects for Canada’s economy and housing market. While these impacts may take time to unfold, they could eventually affect consumer confidence and market dynamics on both sides of the border.”

Highlights from the 2025 Forecast

• Greater Montreal Area is expected to lead with aggregate home price growth of 6.5%, outpacing Greater Toronto (5.0%) and Vancouver (4.0%).

• Quebec City is forecasted to see the largest increase among major regions, with an 11.0% rise in aggregate home prices, followed by Edmonton and Regina at 9.0%.

• Calgary, along with Ottawa, Halifax, and Winnipeg, is projected to experience a moderate 4.0% home price increase, following significant appreciation over the last two years.

• The median price of a condominium in the Greater Toronto Area is anticipated to decline by 1.0%, reflecting the addition of thousands of new units to an already surplus supply.

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3¾% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar.

In Canada, the economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.

A number of policy measures have been announced that will affect the outlook for near-term growth and inflation in Canada. Reductions in targeted immigration levels suggest GDP growth next year will be below the Bank’s October forecast. The effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens both demand and supply. Other federal and provincial policies—including a temporary suspension of the GST on some consumer products, one-time payments to individuals, and changes to mortgage rules—will affect the dynamics of demand and inflation. The Bank will look through effects that are temporary and focus on underlying trends to guide its policy decisions.

In addition, the possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.

CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer, and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected. Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. Measures of core inflation will help us assess the trend in CPI inflation.

With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range. Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June. Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. Our decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 29, 2025.

Source: bankofcanada.ca

Today, the Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate to 3.75%, with the Bank Rate set at 4% and the deposit rate at 3.75%. The Bank continues its balance sheet normalization efforts.

Globally, the economy is projected to grow at a steady 3% over the next two years. Growth in the U.S. is anticipated to be stronger than previously expected, while China’s outlook remains cautious. The euro area’s growth has been sluggish but is expected to improve modestly next year. Inflation in advanced economies has decreased recently, aligning with central bank targets. Since July, global financial conditions have eased, partly due to expectations of lower policy interest rates. Additionally, global oil prices are roughly $10 lower than projected in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In Canada, economic growth was around 2% in the first half of the year, with an anticipated 1.75% growth in the second half. While overall consumption has grown, it has decreased on a per-person basis. Exports have seen a boost from the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. The labor market remains subdued, with the unemployment rate at 6.5% as of September. Population growth continues to expand the labor force, but hiring has been moderate, impacting young people and newcomers the most. Wage growth remains high compared to productivity growth, indicating excess supply in the economy.

Looking ahead, GDP growth is expected to strengthen gradually as lower interest rates support economic activity. A modest increase in consumer spending per capita, along with slower population growth, is expected to drive this recovery. Residential investment is projected to rise, fueled by strong housing demand, while business investment should pick up as overall demand grows. Exports are likely to stay robust, supported by strong U.S. demand.

The Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy gains momentum, the excess supply will gradually be absorbed.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has dropped notably from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September. While inflation in shelter costs remains high, it has begun to ease. Excess supply in the broader economy has lowered the prices of many goods and services, and the recent drop in global oil prices has driven down gasoline costs. These factors have collectively brought inflation down. The Bank’s core inflation measures are now below 2.5%. With inflation pressures no longer widespread, expectations from businesses and consumers have largely stabilized.

The Bank anticipates that inflation will hover around its target range throughout the forecast period. The upward pressure from shelter and services costs is expected to diminish, while downward pressures should ease as the economy absorbs the current excess supply.

With inflation nearing the 2% target, the Governing Council has decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to bolster economic growth and maintain inflation around the mid-point of the 1% to 3% target range. If the economy aligns with the Bank's forecast, additional rate cuts are anticipated. However, the timing and pace of any future reductions will depend on economic data and its implications for inflation. Decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. The Bank remains dedicated to maintaining price stability for Canadians, keeping inflation close to the 2% target.

Source: bankofcanada.ca

The Government of Canada has announced a series of comprehensive mortgage reforms designed to make homeownership more attainable, particularly for younger Canadians. Rising mortgage costs have long been a barrier to buying a home, especially for Millennials and Gen Z. In response, new rules were introduced on August 1, 2024, allowing 30-year insured mortgages for first-time buyers purchasing newly constructed homes.

The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, announced further changes to make mortgages more affordable and homeownership more accessible. Key reforms include:

• Raising the cap on insured mortgages from $1 million to $1.5 million starting December 15, 2024. This reflects current housing market conditions and will help more Canadians qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20% down payment.

• Expanding eligibility for 30-year mortgage amortizations to all first-time homebuyers and buyers of new builds, effective December 15, 2024, reducing monthly payments and boosting affordability. This also aims to encourage new housing construction, addressing the ongoing housing shortage.

These reforms build on the enhanced Canadian Mortgage Charter from Budget 2024, which allows insured mortgage holders to switch lenders at renewal without undergoing another mortgage stress test. This fosters greater competition and ensures that Canadians can secure the best mortgage rates when renewing.

These changes represent the most significant mortgage reforms in decades, forming part of the government's broader plan to build nearly 4 million homes—the largest housing initiative in Canadian history. Additional regulatory updates will be introduced in the coming weeks.

In addition to making mortgages more accessible, the federal government is taking steps to protect homebuyers and renters. Today, blueprints for a Renters’ Bill of Rights and a Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights were unveiled. These new policies, developed in partnership with provinces and territories, aim to eliminate unfair practices, simplify leases, and increase transparency in the housing market. The government is also leveraging the $5 billion Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund to encourage provincial action on issues like renovictions, blind bidding, and standardized lease agreements.

Quotes
“We’ve already helped more than 750,000 Canadians save for a down payment through the Tax-Free First Home Savings Account. Now, with these bold mortgage reforms, we are making it easier for Canadians—especially younger generations—to achieve homeownership. By raising the insured mortgage cap and extending repayment terms, we are unlocking homeownership for more people and encouraging lender competition to secure better rates.”
— The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance

“Everyone deserves a safe, affordable home. These new mortgage measures will significantly help Canadians, especially first-time buyers, as they enter the housing market.”
— The Honourable Sean Fraser, Minister of Housing, Infrastructure, and Communities

Quick Facts

• The enhanced Canadian Mortgage Charter ensures that Canadians facing mortgage difficulties have access to tailored relief, and supports first-time homebuyers.

• Mortgage loan insurance enables Canadians to finance up to 95% of their home’s purchase price, helping them secure competitive interest rates with smaller down payments.

• The government’s housing plan, the largest in Canadian history, will unlock nearly 4 million new homes to make housing more affordable.

• The Tax-Free First Home Savings Account allows Canadians to save up to $8,000 annually and $40,000 in total, tax-free, towards a down payment.

• The Home Buyers’ Plan limit was increased from $35,000 to $60,000 in Budget 2024, allowing first-time buyers to withdraw from their Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) to build or buy their first home. This can be combined with the Tax-Free First Home Savings Account for maximum savings.

Source: www.canada.ca

Ottawa's real estate market is a standout performer throughout the year, and here's why:

Steady Economic Growth

Ottawa’s economy benefits from key sectors like government, technology, and education. As the nation’s capital, it attracts government jobs, tech professionals from companies like Shopify, and students from local universities, driving consistent housing demand.

Diverse Housing Options

With options ranging from historic homes in The Glebe to modern condos in Downtown, Ottawa caters to all preferences and budgets. This diversity means both buyers and sellers can find what they're looking for, whether it’s a first home or an investment property.

Strong Rental Market

Ottawa’s rental market remains strong, supported by students, government employees, and tech workers. This steady demand is great for investors seeking reliable returns and for buyers who may want to rent before purchasing.

Quality of Life

High quality of life in Ottawa, including its clean environment, excellent healthcare, and abundant green spaces, makes it a desirable place to live and invest. This appeal keeps the market active and attractive for both buyers and sellers.

Market Trends and Timing

While Ottawa’s market has seasonal variations, its underlying stability offers year-round opportunities. Sellers can benefit from understanding market timing and maintaining their homes, while buyers should stay informed to seize the right moment.

In conclusion, Ottawa’s thriving real estate market offers benefits for both buyers and sellers. Its economic stability, diverse options, strong rental market, and high quality of life create a vibrant landscape for making informed real estate decisions.

For personalized advice and insights, contact us today!

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate to 4.25%, with the Bank Rate set at 4.5% and the deposit rate at 4.25%. The Bank continues its policy of balance sheet normalization.

Globally, the economy grew by approximately 2.5% in the second quarter, in line with forecasts from the Bank's July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Economic growth in the United States exceeded expectations, driven by consumer spending, though the labor market has slowed. Growth in the euro area was supported by tourism and services, while manufacturing lagged. Inflation in both regions is easing. In China, weak domestic demand has hindered economic growth. Since July, global financial conditions have further relaxed, with bond yields decreasing. The Canadian dollar has seen a modest appreciation, largely due to a weaker US dollar. Oil prices are lower than projected in the July MPR.

In Canada, the economy expanded by 2.1% in the second quarter, primarily due to government spending and business investment. This growth was slightly above the July forecast, though early indicators suggest weaker economic activity through June and July. The labor market remains sluggish, with minimal employment changes in recent months, although wage growth continues to outpace productivity.

As expected, inflation fell to 2.5% in July. The Bank's preferred measures of core inflation averaged around 2.5%, and the percentage of consumer price index components rising above 3% is now close to historical levels. High shelter price inflation remains the largest contributor to overall inflation but is beginning to ease. Inflation in certain services also remains elevated.

Given the ongoing reduction in inflationary pressures, the Governing Council decided to lower the policy interest rate by another 25 basis points. Excess supply in the economy continues to push inflation downward, while rising prices in shelter and some services are keeping inflation elevated. The Governing Council is closely monitoring these opposing forces. Future monetary policy decisions will be based on incoming data and their impact on inflation forecasts. The Bank remains committed to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Source:www.BankofCanada.ca

The Ottawa real estate market showed signs of growth in July 2024, with 1,241 homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB). This represents a 13.6% increase compared to July 2023.

However, home sales were still 7.1% below the five-year average and 8.8% below the 10-year average for July. Despite this, year-to-date sales figures were encouraging, with 8,349 units sold by July 2024, marking a 5.5% increase from the same period in 2023.

The market’s performance is a positive signal amidst the usual summer slowdown, reflecting growing buyer confidence and a steady stream of new listings. Recent policy changes, including interest rate cuts and extended mortgage amortization periods for first-time buyers, could further support the market, though supply challenges remain.

Price Trends

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) provides a detailed view of price trends:

The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price in July 2024 was $648,900, up slightly by 0.1% from July 2023.

Single-family homes had a benchmark price of $734,700, down 0.1% year-over-year.

Townhouse/row units saw a benchmark price of $506,100, an increase of 3.4% compared to last year.

The benchmark price for apartments was $422,800, a decrease of 0.9% from July 2023 levels.

The average price of homes sold in July 2024 stood at $679,610, reflecting a 2.1% decrease from July 2023. The year-to-date average price, however, showed a slight increase of 1.0%, reaching $681,082. The total dollar volume of home sales in July 2024 was $843.3 million, an 11.3% increase from July 2023.

Inventory and New Listings

New residential listings in July 2024 increased by 17.1% from the previous year, totaling 2,231 new listings. Active residential listings at the end of July 2024 numbered 3,480 units, a substantial 37.0% increase from July 2023. The months of inventory, which indicates how long it would take to sell current listings at the current sales pace, rose to 2.8 months, up from 2.3 months in July 2023.

These statistics reflect a market that is gaining momentum, with increasing buyer activity and a growing inventory, although challenges around supply and affordability persist.

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board

In May 2024, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reported a total of 1,545 homes sold through the MLS® System, marking a 9.2% decrease compared to May 2023. This figure was 3.7% lower than the five-year average and 13.2% below the ten-year average for May. Year-to-date, home sales reached 5,673 units over the first five months of the year, reflecting a 5.2% increase from the same period in 2023.

OREB President Curtis Fillier noted that Ottawa's early spring market remained steady, with an increase in new listings indicating growing seller confidence. However, some sellers may have awaited the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement before making decisions, as the first interest rate cut in four years occurred. Nevertheless, supply issues and high home prices persist as challenges despite positive economic indicators.

By the Numbers – Prices:

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

• The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $651,300 in May 2024, a marginal gain of 1.2% from May 2023.

  • The benchmark price for single-family homes was $736,000, up 1.1% on a year-over-year basis in May.

  • By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $517,500, up 2.1% compared to a year earlier.

  • The benchmark apartment price was $425,000, up 2.0% from year-ago levels.

• The average price of homes sold in May 2024 was $690,683 increasing 0.8% from May 2023. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $679,862, increasing by 1.8% from the first five months of 2023.

• The dollar volume of all home sales in May 2024 was $1.06 billion, down 8.5% from the same month in 2023.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Prices will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings

• The number of new listings saw an increase of 26.2% from May 2023. There were 3,034 new residential listings in May 2024. New listings were 23.2% above the five-year average and 10.2% above the 10-year average for the month of May.

• Active residential listings numbered 3,552 units on the market at the end of May 2024, a gain of 59.4% from May 2023. Active listings were 72.2% above the five-year average and 2.9% below the 10-year average for the month of May.

• Months of inventory numbered 2.3 at the end of May 2024, up from 1.3 in May 2023. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. 

Despite increasing inventory levels, many of Canada’s homebuyers have remained cautious this spring, leading to more balanced and less intense market conditions in the past month.

The latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows that home sales across Canadian MLS Systems decreased by 1.7% from March to April 2024. However, actual sales activity was 10.1% higher than in April of the previous year.

Meanwhile, newly listed homes saw a 2.8% increase in April 2024 compared to March. With slower sales and more new listings, the total number of homes on the market surged by 6.5%, reaching its highest point since just before the COVID-19 pandemic. This represents one of the largest monthly increases on record, second only to the market slowdown in early 2022.

James Mabey, Chair of CREA’s 2024-2025 Board of Directors, commented in the monthly report, "After a long hibernation, the spring market is now officially underway. The increase in listings is resulting in the most balanced market conditions we’ve seen at the national level since before the pandemic. Mortgage rates are still high, and it remains challenging for many to enter the market, but for those who can, it’s the first spring market in some time where they can shop around, take their time, and exercise some bargaining power. Given the demand, it's uncertain how long this will last."

With sales declining and new listings increasing in April, the national sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 53.4%, slightly below the long-term average of 55%. By the end of April, there were 4.2 months of inventory nationwide, up from 3.9 months at the end of March. This is the highest level since the pandemic began and exceeds the long-term average of five months.

Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, noted, "April 2023 saw a surge of buyers re-entering a market with new listings at 20-year lows, whereas this spring has been the opposite, with a healthier number of properties to choose from but less enthusiasm on the demand side."

The national average home price in April 2024 was $703,446, down 1.8% from April 2023. The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) remained unchanged from March to April, marking the third consecutive month of stable prices. Regionally, prices are mostly stable across the country, except in Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon, where they have been steadily rising since the beginning of last year.

Source:https://blog.royallepage.ca