In its latest interest rate announcement, the Bank of Canada has chosen to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate set at 3.00% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

This decision comes amid significant shifts in U.S. trade policy and growing uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which have collectively dampened global and domestic economic growth prospects while increasing inflation expectations. The April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) addresses this uncertainty by outlining two possible scenarios for U.S. trade policy moving forward.

• In the first scenario, trade uncertainty remains high but tariffs are limited in scope. Under these conditions, Canadian economic growth is expected to weaken temporarily, while inflation holds close to the 2% target.

• In the second scenario, a prolonged trade war drives the Canadian economy into recession this year, with inflation projected to rise temporarily above 3% in 2026.

The Bank notes that various trade policy outcomes are possible, and the level of uncertainty—both in terms of potential scenarios and their outcomes—is unusually high due to the rapid and unprecedented shifts in U.S. trade policy.

Globally, economic growth was solid at the end of 2024, and inflation had been easing towards central bank targets. However, rising trade tensions have since weighed heavily on the outlook. In the United States, signs of economic slowing have emerged amid elevated policy uncertainty and declining market sentiment. Inflation expectations have also risen. Meanwhile, euro area growth has been modest in early 2025, particularly impacted by a sluggish manufacturing sector. In China, the economy ended 2024 strong but has shown signs of slowing more recently.

Financial markets have experienced significant volatility due to ongoing tariff announcements, delays, and persistent threats of escalation. This turbulence has only added to existing uncertainty. Since January, oil prices have dropped significantly, driven largely by downgraded global growth expectations. The Canadian dollar has appreciated recently, primarily due to a broader weakening of the U.S. dollar.

Domestically, Canada’s economy is also feeling the impact. Tariff-related uncertainty has eroded both consumer and business confidence, contributing to weakness in consumer spending, residential investment, and business capital expenditures in the first quarter. The labour market recovery has also been disrupted, with a reported decline in employment in March and indications from businesses that hiring will slow. Wage growth is showing continued signs of moderation.

Inflation measured at 2.3% in March, slightly lower than February, but still up from 1.8% in January. This increase is largely attributed to a rebound in goods prices and the conclusion of the temporary GST/HST suspension. Looking ahead, the removal of the consumer carbon tax in April is expected to suppress CPI inflation over the next year. Additionally, lower global oil prices will exert downward pressure on inflation. However, tariffs and supply chain disruptions could push certain prices higher. The extent of this impact will depend on how tariffs evolve and how quickly businesses pass increased costs onto consumers. While short-term inflation expectations have risen, long-term expectations remain relatively unchanged.

The Bank’s Governing Council will continue to evaluate both the downward pressures on inflation arising from a slowing economy and the upward pressures caused by higher input costs. The primary focus remains on maintaining price stability and ensuring Canadians retain confidence in the central bank’s ability to manage inflation.

As we navigate this period of heightened global volatility, the Bank of Canada is proceeding cautiously, paying close attention to a range of economic risks. These include:

• The potential reduction in demand for Canadian exports due to higher tariffs,

• The possible knock-on effects on business investment, employment, and household spending,

• The speed and extent to which businesses pass increased costs to consumers, and

• The evolution of inflation expectations.

While monetary policy cannot directly resolve trade uncertainty, it plays a crucial role in safeguarding price stability and supporting economic resilience during challenging times.

Source: bankofcanada.ca

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.

The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape.

After a period of solid growth, the US economy looks to have slowed in recent months. US inflation remains slightly above target. Economic growth in the euro zone was modest in late 2024. China’s economy has posted strong gains, supported by government policies. Equity prices have fallen and bond yields have eased on market expectations of weaker North American growth. Oil prices have been volatile and are trading below the assumptions in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian dollar is broadly unchanged against the US dollar but weaker against other currencies.

Canada’s economy grew by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. This growth path is stronger than was expected at the time of the January MPR. Past cuts to interest rates have boosted economic activity, particularly consumption and housing. However, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in business spending as companies postpone or cancel investments. The negative impact of slowing domestic demand has been partially offset by a surge in exports in advance of tariffs being imposed.

Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.

Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.

While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest. Against this background, and with inflation close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 25 basis points.

Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation. Governing Council will be carefully assessing the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

Source: www.bankofcanada.ca

A total of 809 homes were sold in February 2025 through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB), marking a 10.2% decrease compared to February 2024. Home sales were 19.1% below the five-year average and 15.4% lower than the 10-year average for February.

"Ottawa’s sales activity moderated while prices held steady," says OREB President Paul Czan. "Despite increased inventory, market uncertainty continues to influence buyer and seller decisions. Some sellers who had previously delayed listing are now entering the market, contributing to more options for buyers. While demand remains strong in certain price segments, the pace of sales varies, making strategic pricing and preparation key for sellers."

Czan adds, "The Bank of Canada’s influence on borrowing power, ongoing economic factors like tariffs, and the potential impact of upcoming elections are also shaping buyer and seller sentiment. As we approach the spring market, we anticipate increased buyer activity, particularly if interest rates trend downward and confidence continues to build."

By the Numbers – Prices:

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) provides a more accurate representation of price trends compared to average or median price calculations.

• The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price in February 2025 was $658,300, reflecting a 4.4% increase from February 2024.

  • The benchmark price for a single-family home was $719,800, rising 1.3% year-over-year.

  • In contrast, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit dropped 11.6% to $438,000.

  • The benchmark price for an apartment reached $459,300, up 4.5% from the previous year.

• The average home price in February 2025 was $669,945, reflecting a 1.4% increase from February 2024.

• The total dollar volume of home sales in February 2025 was $541.9 million, down 8.9% from the same period last year.

OREB advises that while the average sale price can help identify trends over time, it should not be used to determine the value of specific properties. The average price is calculated based on the total dollar volume of all sales, and price trends will differ across neighbourhoods.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:

• New listings increased 4.8% from February 2024, with 1,668 new residential properties added to the market. This was 10.8% above the five-year average and 6.7% above the 10-year average for February.

• Active residential listings at the end of February 2025 totaled 3,735 units, a 61.4% surge compared to February 2024. Active listings were 95.7% above the five-year average and 51.4% higher than the 10-year average for February.

• Months of inventory stood at 4.6 at the end of February 2025, up from 2.6 in February 2024. This metric represents how long it would take to sell all current listings at the current pace of sales.

Source:www.oreb.ca

Ottawa City Council has approved plans to expand two existing fire stations in response to growing populations, intensification, and increasing call volumes in both Manotick and Greely. The fire station upgrades are part of the Ottawa Fire Services' 2025 Station Location Study, which aims to place fire stations in optimal locations to ensure prompt and effective emergency response across the city.

The renovations will include the addition of full-time personnel and enhancements to service coverage over the next 10 years.

• Station 94 at 5669 Manotick Main Street will expand its reach to a broader area, including Barrhaven and Riverside South, serving the growing population of residents, homes, and businesses in the area.

• Station 93 at 6891 Parkway Road in Greely will extend its coverage to nearby communities such as Findlay Creek, Leitrim, Metcalfe, and Osgoode.

The fire stations in these rural areas will also shift from a volunteer response standard to an urban response standard, reducing emergency response times from 11 minutes and 8 seconds to 7 minutes and 13 seconds. This change will significantly enhance the city’s ability to respond quickly to emergencies.

Funding for these expansions will be included in future budget plans, starting with the 2027 budget for Manotick and the 2030 budget for Greely.

Flood Protection Rebates for Ottawa Homeowners

In addition to the fire station updates, City Council has approved important updates to the Residential Protective Plumbing Program to help homeowners safeguard their properties from flooding and prepare for extreme weather events. These changes aim to simplify the application process and reduce associated costs.

Residents can now access larger rebates for installing sump pumps, backwater valves, and other protective plumbing measures to prevent basement flooding. Here’s what’s available:

• $3,000 for a sump pump in a new sump pit

• $1,500 for a sump pump in an existing pit

• $2,500 for an exterior storm backwater valve

• $1,000 for an indoor backwater valve

• 100% coverage of the building permit fee for protective plumbing work

These rebates are designed to help homeowners protect their properties from flooding and prepare for extreme weather events. The City has also made changes to the Compassionate Grant Program, which provides financial support for residents affected by flooding caused by sewer surcharging.

Ottawa’s commitment to enhancing fire services and flood protection is evident in these two important initiatives. The expansion of fire stations in Manotick and Greely will improve emergency response times, while the increase in flood protection rebates gives homeowners the tools to protect their properties from water damage.

For more information on the Residential Protective Plumbing Program click here!

Source: https://ottawa.ca/en

A total of 617 homes were sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) in January 2025, marking a 4.2% decline compared to January 2024.

Home sales fell 13% below the five-year average and 9.6% under the 10-year average for January.

“Ottawa’s market is seeing increased activity as more listings hit the market and buyers start to re-engage,” says OREB President Paul Czan. “Many buyers and sellers had been waiting for more conducive market conditions, but with the recent rate cut and potentially lower interest rates on the horizon, optimism is growing. While there’s more supply, the availability of suitable properties in various market segments remains tight. This is reflected in some homes selling quickly while others linger on the market. Sellers should be prepared to price competitively and present their homes in the best light to capture buyer interest in this evolving market."

“The recent Bank of Canada rate cut, introduction of U.S. tariffs, along with upcoming provincial and federal elections, introduce factors of variability,” adds Czan. “That said, confidence is growing, and more buyers are expected to return to the market in the coming months, leading to an increase in transactions.”

By the Numbers – Prices

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) provides a more precise measurement of price trends than average or median price calculations.

• The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price stood at $649,900 in January 2025, reflecting a 5.2% increase from January 2024.

• The benchmark price for single-family homes reached $713,000, up 2.3% year-over-year.

• In contrast, the benchmark price for townhouse/row units declined 3.9% from the previous year to $448,000.

• The benchmark price for apartments was $436,900, a 4.5% increase from January 2024.

• The average sale price of homes in January 2025 was $670,258, a 5.8% rise from the previous year.

• The total dollar volume of all home sales in January 2025 amounted to $413.5 million, reflecting a 1.3% increase compared to January 2024.

OREB advises that while the average sale price can highlight broader market trends over time, it should not be interpreted as an indicator of value changes for specific properties. The average price is derived from the total dollar volume of all sales, with prices varying across different neighbourhoods.

By the Numbers – Inventory and New Listings

• New residential listings rose by 3.0% compared to January 2024, with 1,359 new properties hitting the market in January 2025. New listings were 14.1% above the five-year average and 9.3% higher than the 10-year average for January.

• Active residential listings reached 3,312 units at the end of January 2025, marking a 57.3% increase from January 2024. Active listings were 90.6% higher than the five-year average and 48.9% above the 10-year average for January.

• Months of inventory stood at 5.4 at the end of January 2025, compared to 3.3 in January 2024. This figure represents the number of months required to sell the current inventory at the existing rate of sales activity.

Thinking about buying or selling in Ottawa’s evolving market? Whether you're a buyer looking for the right opportunity or a seller wanting to position your home competitively, we're here to help you navigate the market with confidence.

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The Bank of Canada has announced a reduction in its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate set at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%. Additionally, the Bank has outlined its plan to finalize the normalization of its balance sheet by ending quantitative tightening. Asset purchases will resume in early March, with a gradual approach to ensure the balance sheet stabilizes before experiencing modest growth in line with economic expansion.

The January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) highlights an increased level of uncertainty in its projections due to the rapidly shifting policy landscape, particularly regarding potential trade tariffs from the new U.S. administration. Because the extent and duration of a possible trade conflict remain uncertain, the report presents a baseline forecast that assumes no new tariffs.

According to the MPR, the global economy is projected to maintain growth at approximately 3% over the next two years. U.S. economic growth has been revised upward, primarily due to stronger consumer spending. In contrast, growth in the eurozone is expected to remain sluggish due to competitiveness challenges. In China, recent policy measures are supporting short-term demand and economic expansion, though structural challenges persist.

Since October, financial conditions have diverged internationally. U.S. bond yields have risen, driven by solid economic growth and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, Canadian bond yields have declined slightly. The Canadian dollar has weakened significantly against the U.S. dollar, largely due to trade uncertainty and overall strength in the U.S. currency. Oil prices have been volatile, rising by about $5 above the levels anticipated in the October MPR.

In Canada, previous interest rate cuts have already started stimulating the economy, and the momentum in consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak, while exports are benefiting from expanded oil and gas export capacity.

The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% as of December. While job growth has improved in recent months, it had previously lagged behind labour force expansion for over a year. Wage pressures, which had been persistently high, are now showing early signs of easing.

The Bank anticipates that GDP growth will strengthen in 2025. However, given reduced immigration targets, both actual GDP growth and potential growth are expected to be more moderate than previous forecasts in October. Following an anticipated GDP growth rate of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP growth of 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026—a rate that slightly exceeds potential growth. Consequently, excess supply in the economy is projected to diminish gradually over time.

Inflation remains close to 2%, though fluctuations are occurring due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on certain consumer goods. While shelter price inflation remains high, it is gradually declining as anticipated. Various economic indicators, including inflation expectation surveys and price change trends within the CPI, suggest that underlying inflation is stabilizing around 2%. The Bank projects that CPI inflation will remain near its 2% target over the next two years.

Excluding potential U.S. trade tariffs, the economic outlook maintains a relatively balanced level of risks. However, the MPR warns that a prolonged trade dispute could result in lower GDP growth and higher consumer prices in Canada.

Given inflation stabilizing around 2% and an economy operating with excess supply, the Governing Council has decided to cut the policy rate by another 25 basis points to 3%. Since last June, the cumulative rate cuts have been significant. Lower interest rates are already stimulating household spending, and based on today's projections, the economy is expected to gradually strengthen while inflation remains stable. However, if significant trade tariffs were to be implemented, Canada's economic resilience would be put to the test.

The Bank will closely monitor economic developments and assess their impact on inflation and monetary policy. It remains dedicated to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

With the Bank of Canada lowering its policy rate to 3%, now is the time to assess your real estate plans. Whether you're buying, selling, or refinancing, lower rates could open new opportunities. Let’s discuss how this impacts your goals—contact us today!

Mortgage scams are more prevalent than you might think, targeting unsuspecting individuals with promises of financial relief or better loan terms. For many Canadians, their home is their most valuable asset, making it critical to remain vigilant. Mortgage scams can come in many forms, including:

• False promises for better mortgage terms.

• Wire fraud during the closing process, where scammers impersonate legal professionals to redirect payments.

• Reverse mortgage fraud, which drains home equity.

• Loan flipping, where borrowers are pressured into repeatedly refinancing loans so lenders can collect excessive fees.

To safeguard your finances and peace of mind, consider these tips to avoid falling victim to mortgage fraud:

• Research Lenders Thoroughly: Shop around for qualified lenders and verify their credentials on trusted sites like the Better Business Bureau.

• Understand Affordability: Your mortgage payment should ideally range between 28-32% of your gross monthly income. Be cautious of lenders willing to exceed this threshold—it’s a red flag.

• Never Prepay Without a Contract: Only provide payment to a lender once you have a fully executed agreement in writing.

• Guard Personal Information: Avoid sharing sensitive details, such as banking or personal information, in response to unsolicited offers.

• Read All Documentation Carefully: Take your time to review and understand all documents before signing anything. Consult a professional for clarity if needed.

• Monitor Your Credit Report: Regularly check your credit report to identify unauthorized transactions early.

• Consult Professionals: Be cautious of lenders who discourage you from seeking advice from a financial advisor, lawyer, or real estate professional.

• Watch for High-Pressure Tactics: Legitimate lenders will never bully or rush you into a decision.

A Final Word of Caution

If an offer sounds too good to be true, it almost always is. Scammers often prey on desperation or eagerness, so keep your guard up and trust your instincts. By staying informed and cautious, you can protect your financial future from those who aim to take advantage of it.

A total of 613 homes were sold in December 2024 via the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB), representing a 7.9% increase from December 2023.

Despite this rise, home sales were 6.8% below the five-year average and 2.7% lower than the 10-year average for December. Year-to-date sales reached 13,526 units by December 2024, an 11.8% increase from the same period in 2023.

“A year of wait-and-see came to a close with the expected slowdown over the holiday season,” said OREB President Paul Czan. “The latter half of the year brought signs of more favourable market conditions with consecutive interest rate drops, higher insured mortgage limits, and extended amortizations. It’s early to assess the impact of these measures. And it’s an uphill battle against affordability and supply issues that persist.”

“Listing activity indicates that sellers anticipate improved conditions could spur more activity from buyers who have been keeping a close eye on the market but hesitant to make moves. Buyers are still limited in their selection of affordable inventory that can meet current demands, which stalls movement. While the improving market conditions are encouraging, the supply needs to be there. Coming political shifts are adding a layer of uncertainty but there is a trending optimism for more increased market activity in the months ahead.”

By the Numbers – Prices

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), which tracks price trends more accurately than average or median prices, highlighted the following:

• The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $645,800 in December 2024, up 3.8% from December 2023.

  • Single-family homes: $729,300, an increase of 3.7% year-over-year.

  • Townhouse/row units: $533,200, up 11.3% from a year ago.

  • Apartments: $404,400, down 2.5% compared to December 2023.

• The average sale price in December 2024 was $663,781, a 4.4% increase from December 2023.

• Year-to-date, the average price was $679,067, rising 1.3% compared to 2023.

• The total dollar volume of home sales in December 2024 was $406.9 million, up 12.7% year-over-year. For the entire year, the total dollar volume reached $9.2 billion, an increase of 13.3% from 2023.

OREB cautions that while average sale prices offer insight into market trends over time, they do not reflect changes in the value of individual properties. Average price calculations are derived from the total dollar volume of all properties sold, with prices varying significantly by neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings

• New listings: 603 new residential properties were added in December 2024, marking a 13.6% increase from December 2023. This was 3.5% above the five-year average but 2.7% below the 10-year average for December.

• Active listings: Residential listings totalled 3,216 units at the end of December 2024, a surge of 58.7% compared to December 2023. Active listings were 90% above the five-year average and 51.4% above the 10-year average for the month.

• Months of inventory: There were 5.2 months of inventory at the end of December 2024, compared to 3.6 months in December 2023. This metric reflects the time it would take to sell all current inventory at the current sales pace.

In recent years, the Canadian housing market has experienced significant disruptions. A global pandemic, surging interest rates, and economic challenges caused the market to deviate from typical patterns. However, 2025 is anticipated to see a return to conditions more aligned with long-term historical trends.

The Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast projects that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will rise by 6.0% year-over-year, reaching $856,692 in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median price of a single-family detached home is expected to grow by 7.0% to $900,833, while condominiums are forecasted to see a 3.5% increase, reaching $605,993.

“After several years of unusual volatility in the real estate market, key indicators point to a return to stability in 2025. The backlog of willing and able buyers continues to grow, and upcoming changes to mortgage lending rules will further enhance Canadians’ borrowing power,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage. “Most notably, the Bank of Canada’s shift from ‘inflation fighter’ to ‘economy booster’ has taken time to influence buyer behaviour. We saw a marked increase in market activity at the start of the fourth quarter, following the Bank of Canada’s 50-basis-point rate cut. Buyers now believe home prices have hit bottom and are eager to act before competition intensifies.”

New Lending Rules to Enhance Borrowing Power

New lending regulations taking effect this month will provide improved accessibility for first-time buyers and existing homeowners. Starting December 15th, eligibility for 30-year amortizations on insured mortgages will expand to include all first-time buyers and purchasers of new construction homes, an increase from the current 25-year limit. Additionally, the mortgage insurance cap will rise from $1 million to $1.5 million, enabling buyers with less than a 20% down payment to consider higher-value properties. These changes will be especially impactful in Canada’s most expensive real estate markets, where average home prices often exceed $1 million.

“Improved lending conditions, combined with declining interest rates, will unlock new housing opportunities for many Canadians in the new year. First-time buyers will be the primary beneficiaries of these initiatives, as their ability to borrow more for less with a smaller down payment will help bring them closer to their first home purchase,” said Soper. “We believe the return of buyers to the market will encourage builders and trigger a wave of new supply, which is very much needed.

“Addressing Canada’s critical housing shortage must remain a top priority for policymakers at every level of government. With our population growing rapidly through both natural increases and immigration, it is essential to stay focused on supporting the development of new homes if we hope to address housing affordability, be it for purchase or rent.”

Shifting Political Landscapes and Potential Housing Impacts

The year 2025 is expected to bring political changes in both Canada and the United States, with potential implications for the housing market. In Canada, a federal election may introduce new housing policies that could temporarily influence market activity in the latter half of the year.

“With an election approaching in Ottawa and a new administration preparing to take office in Washington, the housing market faces potential disruptions. Here at home, a federal election will see new housing policies that may temporarily impact market activity in the second half of 2025,” said Soper. “Meanwhile, south of the border, the incoming Trump administration’s trade policies and broader economic agenda have the potential to create ripple effects for Canada’s economy and housing market. While these impacts may take time to unfold, they could eventually affect consumer confidence and market dynamics on both sides of the border.”

Highlights from the 2025 Forecast

• Greater Montreal Area is expected to lead with aggregate home price growth of 6.5%, outpacing Greater Toronto (5.0%) and Vancouver (4.0%).

• Quebec City is forecasted to see the largest increase among major regions, with an 11.0% rise in aggregate home prices, followed by Edmonton and Regina at 9.0%.

• Calgary, along with Ottawa, Halifax, and Winnipeg, is projected to experience a moderate 4.0% home price increase, following significant appreciation over the last two years.

• The median price of a condominium in the Greater Toronto Area is anticipated to decline by 1.0%, reflecting the addition of thousands of new units to an already surplus supply.

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3¾% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar.

In Canada, the economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.

A number of policy measures have been announced that will affect the outlook for near-term growth and inflation in Canada. Reductions in targeted immigration levels suggest GDP growth next year will be below the Bank’s October forecast. The effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens both demand and supply. Other federal and provincial policies—including a temporary suspension of the GST on some consumer products, one-time payments to individuals, and changes to mortgage rules—will affect the dynamics of demand and inflation. The Bank will look through effects that are temporary and focus on underlying trends to guide its policy decisions.

In addition, the possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.

CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer, and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected. Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. Measures of core inflation will help us assess the trend in CPI inflation.

With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range. Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June. Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. Our decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 29, 2025.

Source: bankofcanada.ca

Early signs of a vibrant spring real estate market are evident in Ottawa's MLS® data. In March 2024, the Ottawa Real Estate Board recorded 1,165 home sales, marking a 10% increase from the same period last year. However, despite this surge, sales remained 21.5% below the five-year average and 15% below the ten-year average for March.

Year-to-date figures also depict a positive trend, with 2,678 homes sold in the first three months of 2024, reflecting a 13.1% increase from the corresponding period in 2023. Curtis Fillier, President of OREB, highlights the overall health of Ottawa's real estate market, anticipating an active spring and summer. Fillier notes the growing confidence among sellers, as indicated by the rise in new and active listings, coupled with increased showing activity. However, he observes a cautious approach from buyers, likely due to concerns regarding affordability and limited supply.

Fillier suggests a shift is imminent in the market dynamics, driven by post-pandemic adjustments in housing needs. This includes trends such as downsizing, urban migration, and seeking properties better suited to evolving requirements. Consequently, there's mounting pressure on the mid-range property market in Ottawa, which traditionally faces tight inventory levels. Fillier advises both buyers and sellers not to delay their decisions in this evolving market landscape.

In terms of pricing, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) reveals consistent growth. The composite benchmark price reached $636,700 in March 2024, reflecting a 2.7% increase year-over-year. Single-family homes saw a benchmark price rise of 2.6%, reaching $719,000, while townhouse/row units and apartments experienced modest gains as well.

The average price of homes sold in March 2024 was $682,078, up 5.1% from the previous year, with the year-to-date average price showing a 3.2% increase. Overall, the dollar volume of home sales in March 2024 surged by 15.6% compared to the same month in 2023.

In terms of inventory and new listings, March 2024 witnessed a 13.5% increase in new residential listings compared to March 2023, totalling 2,074 new listings. However, this figure remained slightly below the five-year average and significantly lower than the ten-year average for March. Active residential listings also rose by 18.3% year-over-year, with 2,543 units on the market by the end of March 2024. Despite this increase, months of inventory only saw a slight uptick, indicating a persistent imbalance between supply and demand in the Ottawa real estate market.

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The Bank of Canada has opted to maintain its overnight lending rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive occasion, as announced in its scheduled interest rate declaration on March 6th. It affirmed its commitment to keep the policy rate steady at 5% and to continue the process of normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet.

Despite a drop in the annual inflation rate to 2.9% in January, the Bank cited underlying inflationary factors like shelter costs as grounds for maintaining the current interest rate level. It expressed the desire to witness further easing of inflation and the establishment of price stability before considering rate adjustments.

Economists anticipate potential rate reductions later in the year, possibly in the June announcement, should inflation continue to decrease toward the central bank’s target of 2%. The Bank of Canada's next announcement is scheduled for April 10th, 2024.

Today, the Bank maintained its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%, while also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

The global economic landscape saw a slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter, with the US experiencing a slight deceleration but maintaining robust and broad-based GDP growth. Meanwhile, the euro area's economic growth remained stagnant after a contraction in the third quarter. Inflation in both the US and the euro area continued to ease, while bond yields rose and corporate credit spreads narrowed. Equity markets showed strong gains, and global oil prices were slightly higher than previously projected.

In Canada, fourth-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, driven by exports, although overall economic growth remained below potential. Despite a modest increase in consumption, final domestic demand contracted, primarily due to a significant decline in business investment. Employment growth continued to lag behind population growth, and there were indications of easing wage pressures. Overall, the data suggest an economy operating with modest excess supply.

CPI inflation eased to 2.9% in January, mainly due to a moderation in goods price inflation. However, shelter price inflation remained elevated and remained the primary contributor to overall inflation. Underlying inflationary pressures persisted, with year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation remaining in the 3% to 3.5% range. Although the proportion of CPI components growing above 3% declined, it remained above historical averages. The Bank anticipates inflation to stay close to 3% during the first half of the year before gradually easing.

The Governing Council's decision to maintain the policy rate at 5% and continue the normalization of the Bank’s balance sheet reflects concerns about inflation risks, particularly regarding the persistence of underlying inflation. The Council aims to witness further and sustained easing in core inflation while focusing on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behavior. The Bank remains steadfast in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.