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Ottawa’s Market Heats Up with Increased Listings and Cautious Buyers

A total of 617 homes were sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) in January 2025, marking a 4.2% decline compared to January 2024.

Home sales fell 13% below the five-year average and 9.6% under the 10-year average for January.

“Ottawa’s market is seeing increased activity as more listings hit the market and buyers start to re-engage,” says OREB President Paul Czan. “Many buyers and sellers had been waiting for more conducive market conditions, but with the recent rate cut and potentially lower interest rates on the horizon, optimism is growing. While there’s more supply, the availability of suitable properties in various market segments remains tight. This is reflected in some homes selling quickly while others linger on the market. Sellers should be prepared to price competitively and present their homes in the best light to capture buyer interest in this evolving market."

“The recent Bank of Canada rate cut, introduction of U.S. tariffs, along with upcoming provincial and federal elections, introduce factors of variability,” adds Czan. “That said, confidence is growing, and more buyers are expected to return to the market in the coming months, leading to an increase in transactions.”

By the Numbers – Prices

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) provides a more precise measurement of price trends than average or median price calculations.

  • The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price stood at $649,900 in January 2025, reflecting a 5.2% increase from January 2024.

  • The benchmark price for single-family homes reached $713,000, up 2.3% year-over-year.

  • In contrast, the benchmark price for townhouse/row units declined 3.9% from the previous year to $448,000.

  • The benchmark price for apartments was $436,900, a 4.5% increase from January 2024.

  • The average sale price of homes in January 2025 was $670,258, a 5.8% rise from the previous year.

  • The total dollar volume of all home sales in January 2025 amounted to $413.5 million, reflecting a 1.3% increase compared to January 2024.

OREB advises that while the average sale price can highlight broader market trends over time, it should not be interpreted as an indicator of value changes for specific properties. The average price is derived from the total dollar volume of all sales, with prices varying across different neighbourhoods.

By the Numbers – Inventory and New Listings

  • New residential listings rose by 3.0% compared to January 2024, with 1,359 new properties hitting the market in January 2025. New listings were 14.1% above the five-year average and 9.3% higher than the 10-year average for January.

  • Active residential listings reached 3,312 units at the end of January 2025, marking a 57.3% increase from January 2024. Active listings were 90.6% higher than the five-year average and 48.9% above the 10-year average for January.

  • Months of inventory stood at 5.4 at the end of January 2025, compared to 3.3 in January 2024. This figure represents the number of months required to sell the current inventory at the existing rate of sales activity.

Thinking about buying or selling in Ottawa’s evolving market? Whether you're a buyer looking for the right opportunity or a seller wanting to position your home competitively, we're here to help you navigate the market with confidence.

Contact us today for expert advice and personalized guidance! Let's make your real estate goals a reality.

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Bank of Canada Lowers Interest Rate to 3%: Economic Growth and Stability on the Horizon

The Bank of Canada has announced a reduction in its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate set at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%. Additionally, the Bank has outlined its plan to finalize the normalization of its balance sheet by ending quantitative tightening. Asset purchases will resume in early March, with a gradual approach to ensure the balance sheet stabilizes before experiencing modest growth in line with economic expansion.

The January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) highlights an increased level of uncertainty in its projections due to the rapidly shifting policy landscape, particularly regarding potential trade tariffs from the new U.S. administration. Because the extent and duration of a possible trade conflict remain uncertain, the report presents a baseline forecast that assumes no new tariffs.

According to the MPR, the global economy is projected to maintain growth at approximately 3% over the next two years. U.S. economic growth has been revised upward, primarily due to stronger consumer spending. In contrast, growth in the eurozone is expected to remain sluggish due to competitiveness challenges. In China, recent policy measures are supporting short-term demand and economic expansion, though structural challenges persist.

Since October, financial conditions have diverged internationally. U.S. bond yields have risen, driven by solid economic growth and persistent inflation. Meanwhile, Canadian bond yields have declined slightly. The Canadian dollar has weakened significantly against the U.S. dollar, largely due to trade uncertainty and overall strength in the U.S. currency. Oil prices have been volatile, rising by about $5 above the levels anticipated in the October MPR.

In Canada, previous interest rate cuts have already started stimulating the economy, and the momentum in consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak, while exports are benefiting from expanded oil and gas export capacity.

The labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% as of December. While job growth has improved in recent months, it had previously lagged behind labour force expansion for over a year. Wage pressures, which had been persistently high, are now showing early signs of easing.

The Bank anticipates that GDP growth will strengthen in 2025. However, given reduced immigration targets, both actual GDP growth and potential growth are expected to be more moderate than previous forecasts in October. Following an anticipated GDP growth rate of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP growth of 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026—a rate that slightly exceeds potential growth. Consequently, excess supply in the economy is projected to diminish gradually over time.

Inflation remains close to 2%, though fluctuations are occurring due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on certain consumer goods. While shelter price inflation remains high, it is gradually declining as anticipated. Various economic indicators, including inflation expectation surveys and price change trends within the CPI, suggest that underlying inflation is stabilizing around 2%. The Bank projects that CPI inflation will remain near its 2% target over the next two years.

Excluding potential U.S. trade tariffs, the economic outlook maintains a relatively balanced level of risks. However, the MPR warns that a prolonged trade dispute could result in lower GDP growth and higher consumer prices in Canada.

Given inflation stabilizing around 2% and an economy operating with excess supply, the Governing Council has decided to cut the policy rate by another 25 basis points to 3%. Since last June, the cumulative rate cuts have been significant. Lower interest rates are already stimulating household spending, and based on today's projections, the economy is expected to gradually strengthen while inflation remains stable. However, if significant trade tariffs were to be implemented, Canada's economic resilience would be put to the test.

The Bank will closely monitor economic developments and assess their impact on inflation and monetary policy. It remains dedicated to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

With the Bank of Canada lowering its policy rate to 3%, now is the time to assess your real estate plans. Whether you're buying, selling, or refinancing, lower rates could open new opportunities. Let’s discuss how this impacts your goals—contact us today!

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December 2024 Market Recap

A total of 613 homes were sold in December 2024 via the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB), representing a 7.9% increase from December 2023.

Despite this rise, home sales were 6.8% below the five-year average and 2.7% lower than the 10-year average for December. Year-to-date sales reached 13,526 units by December 2024, an 11.8% increase from the same period in 2023.

“A year of wait-and-see came to a close with the expected slowdown over the holiday season,” said OREB President Paul Czan. “The latter half of the year brought signs of more favourable market conditions with consecutive interest rate drops, higher insured mortgage limits, and extended amortizations. It’s early to assess the impact of these measures. And it’s an uphill battle against affordability and supply issues that persist.”

“Listing activity indicates that sellers anticipate improved conditions could spur more activity from buyers who have been keeping a close eye on the market but hesitant to make moves. Buyers are still limited in their selection of affordable inventory that can meet current demands, which stalls movement. While the improving market conditions are encouraging, the supply needs to be there. Coming political shifts are adding a layer of uncertainty but there is a trending optimism for more increased market activity in the months ahead.”

By the Numbers – Prices

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), which tracks price trends more accurately than average or median prices, highlighted the following:

  • The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $645,800 in December 2024, up 3.8% from December 2023.

    • Single-family homes: $729,300, an increase of 3.7% year-over-year.

    • Townhouse/row units: $533,200, up 11.3% from a year ago.

    • Apartments: $404,400, down 2.5% compared to December 2023.

  • The average sale price in December 2024 was $663,781, a 4.4% increase from December 2023.

  • Year-to-date, the average price was $679,067, rising 1.3% compared to 2023.

  • The total dollar volume of home sales in December 2024 was $406.9 million, up 12.7% year-over-year. For the entire year, the total dollar volume reached $9.2 billion, an increase of 13.3% from 2023.

OREB cautions that while average sale prices offer insight into market trends over time, they do not reflect changes in the value of individual properties. Average price calculations are derived from the total dollar volume of all properties sold, with prices varying significantly by neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings

  • New listings: 603 new residential properties were added in December 2024, marking a 13.6% increase from December 2023. This was 3.5% above the five-year average but 2.7% below the 10-year average for December.

  • Active listings: Residential listings totalled 3,216 units at the end of December 2024, a surge of 58.7% compared to December 2023. Active listings were 90% above the five-year average and 51.4% above the 10-year average for the month.

  • Months of inventory: There were 5.2 months of inventory at the end of December 2024, compared to 3.6 months in December 2023. This metric reflects the time it would take to sell all current inventory at the current sales pace.

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Canadian Housing Market 2025: Stability Returns Amid Evolving Lending Rules & Political Changes

In recent years, the Canadian housing market has experienced significant disruptions. A global pandemic, surging interest rates, and economic challenges caused the market to deviate from typical patterns. However, 2025 is anticipated to see a return to conditions more aligned with long-term historical trends.

The Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast projects that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will rise by 6.0% year-over-year, reaching $856,692 in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median price of a single-family detached home is expected to grow by 7.0% to $900,833, while condominiums are forecasted to see a 3.5% increase, reaching $605,993.

“After several years of unusual volatility in the real estate market, key indicators point to a return to stability in 2025. The backlog of willing and able buyers continues to grow, and upcoming changes to mortgage lending rules will further enhance Canadians’ borrowing power,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer, Royal LePage. “Most notably, the Bank of Canada’s shift from ‘inflation fighter’ to ‘economy booster’ has taken time to influence buyer behaviour. We saw a marked increase in market activity at the start of the fourth quarter, following the Bank of Canada’s 50-basis-point rate cut. Buyers now believe home prices have hit bottom and are eager to act before competition intensifies.”

New Lending Rules to Enhance Borrowing Power

New lending regulations taking effect this month will provide improved accessibility for first-time buyers and existing homeowners. Starting December 15th, eligibility for 30-year amortizations on insured mortgages will expand to include all first-time buyers and purchasers of new construction homes, an increase from the current 25-year limit. Additionally, the mortgage insurance cap will rise from $1 million to $1.5 million, enabling buyers with less than a 20% down payment to consider higher-value properties. These changes will be especially impactful in Canada’s most expensive real estate markets, where average home prices often exceed $1 million.

“Improved lending conditions, combined with declining interest rates, will unlock new housing opportunities for many Canadians in the new year. First-time buyers will be the primary beneficiaries of these initiatives, as their ability to borrow more for less with a smaller down payment will help bring them closer to their first home purchase,” said Soper. “We believe the return of buyers to the market will encourage builders and trigger a wave of new supply, which is very much needed.

“Addressing Canada’s critical housing shortage must remain a top priority for policymakers at every level of government. With our population growing rapidly through both natural increases and immigration, it is essential to stay focused on supporting the development of new homes if we hope to address housing affordability, be it for purchase or rent.”

Shifting Political Landscapes and Potential Housing Impacts

The year 2025 is expected to bring political changes in both Canada and the United States, with potential implications for the housing market. In Canada, a federal election may introduce new housing policies that could temporarily influence market activity in the latter half of the year.

“With an election approaching in Ottawa and a new administration preparing to take office in Washington, the housing market faces potential disruptions. Here at home, a federal election will see new housing policies that may temporarily impact market activity in the second half of 2025,” said Soper. “Meanwhile, south of the border, the incoming Trump administration’s trade policies and broader economic agenda have the potential to create ripple effects for Canada’s economy and housing market. While these impacts may take time to unfold, they could eventually affect consumer confidence and market dynamics on both sides of the border.”

Highlights from the 2025 Forecast

  • Greater Montreal Area is expected to lead with aggregate home price growth of 6.5%, outpacing Greater Toronto (5.0%) and Vancouver (4.0%).

  • Quebec City is forecasted to see the largest increase among major regions, with an 11.0% rise in aggregate home prices, followed by Edmonton and Regina at 9.0%.

  • Calgary, along with Ottawa, Halifax, and Winnipeg, is projected to experience a moderate 4.0% home price increase, following significant appreciation over the last two years.

  • The median price of a condominium in the Greater Toronto Area is anticipated to decline by 1.0%, reflecting the addition of thousands of new units to an already surplus supply.

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Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.25%

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¼%, with the Bank Rate at 3¾% and the deposit rate at 3¼%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.

The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar.

In Canada, the economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.

A number of policy measures have been announced that will affect the outlook for near-term growth and inflation in Canada. Reductions in targeted immigration levels suggest GDP growth next year will be below the Bank’s October forecast. The effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens both demand and supply. Other federal and provincial policies—including a temporary suspension of the GST on some consumer products, one-time payments to individuals, and changes to mortgage rules—will affect the dynamics of demand and inflation. The Bank will look through effects that are temporary and focus on underlying trends to guide its policy decisions.

In addition, the possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.

CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer, and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected. Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. Measures of core inflation will help us assess the trend in CPI inflation.

With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range. Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June. Going forward, we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. Our decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 29, 2025.

Source: bankofcanada.ca

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Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rates Amid Optimistic Economic Outlook

Today, the Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate to 3.75%, with the Bank Rate set at 4% and the deposit rate at 3.75%. The Bank continues its balance sheet normalization efforts.

Globally, the economy is projected to grow at a steady 3% over the next two years. Growth in the U.S. is anticipated to be stronger than previously expected, while China’s outlook remains cautious. The euro area’s growth has been sluggish but is expected to improve modestly next year. Inflation in advanced economies has decreased recently, aligning with central bank targets. Since July, global financial conditions have eased, partly due to expectations of lower policy interest rates. Additionally, global oil prices are roughly $10 lower than projected in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In Canada, economic growth was around 2% in the first half of the year, with an anticipated 1.75% growth in the second half. While overall consumption has grown, it has decreased on a per-person basis. Exports have seen a boost from the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. The labor market remains subdued, with the unemployment rate at 6.5% as of September. Population growth continues to expand the labor force, but hiring has been moderate, impacting young people and newcomers the most. Wage growth remains high compared to productivity growth, indicating excess supply in the economy.

Looking ahead, GDP growth is expected to strengthen gradually as lower interest rates support economic activity. A modest increase in consumer spending per capita, along with slower population growth, is expected to drive this recovery. Residential investment is projected to rise, fueled by strong housing demand, while business investment should pick up as overall demand grows. Exports are likely to stay robust, supported by strong U.S. demand.

The Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy gains momentum, the excess supply will gradually be absorbed.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has dropped notably from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September. While inflation in shelter costs remains high, it has begun to ease. Excess supply in the broader economy has lowered the prices of many goods and services, and the recent drop in global oil prices has driven down gasoline costs. These factors have collectively brought inflation down. The Bank’s core inflation measures are now below 2.5%. With inflation pressures no longer widespread, expectations from businesses and consumers have largely stabilized.

The Bank anticipates that inflation will hover around its target range throughout the forecast period. The upward pressure from shelter and services costs is expected to diminish, while downward pressures should ease as the economy absorbs the current excess supply.

With inflation nearing the 2% target, the Governing Council has decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to bolster economic growth and maintain inflation around the mid-point of the 1% to 3% target range. If the economy aligns with the Bank's forecast, additional rate cuts are anticipated. However, the timing and pace of any future reductions will depend on economic data and its implications for inflation. Decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. The Bank remains dedicated to maintaining price stability for Canadians, keeping inflation close to the 2% target.

Source: bankofcanada.ca

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Ottawa Home Sales See Steady Growth Amid Market Adjustments in September 2024

In September 2024, 1,047 homes were sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB), marking an 11.4% increase compared to September 2023. However, sales were 17.4% below the five-year average and 15.4% lower than the 10-year average for September.

Year-to-date, a total of 10,485 homes have been sold in 2024, reflecting a 6.4% rise from the same period in 2023.

"As the housing market adjusts, Ottawa’s fall outlook remains strong,” says OREB President Curtis Fillier. "Sales are picking up, and prices are steady. Both buyers and sellers are reevaluating their strategies amid expectations of further interest rate cuts, extended amortizations, and higher price caps for insured mortgages.”

Fillier adds, “While recent policy changes will boost demand, Ottawa’s market faces ongoing supply challenges. We’re not building enough homes, particularly the ‘missing middle’ type.” The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recently reported that Ottawa's population-adjusted construction rate is at its lowest in nearly a decade. A City of Ottawa progress report shows the city has met only 22% of its annual housing target by the end of August.

By the Numbers – Prices:

  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), which offers a more accurate picture of price trends than averages, shows the overall benchmark price for all homes was $642,800 in September 2024, a slight 0.2% increase from September 2023.

  • The benchmark price for single-family homes was $729,000, up 0.5% year-over-year.

  • Townhouses/row units had a benchmark price of $500,000, down 1.7% from the previous year.

  • Apartments saw a benchmark price of $414,200, a 1.3% decrease from September 2023.

  • The average price of homes sold in September 2024 was $685,551, up 1.4% from a year ago. The year-to-date average price was $679,082, a 0.9% increase from 2023.

  • The total value of home sales in September reached $717.7 million, a 12.9% jump from September 2023.

OREB notes that while average sale prices can reveal long-term trends, they shouldn’t be viewed as a measure of individual property value changes, as prices vary across different neighbourhoods.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:

  • There were 2,343 new residential listings in September 2024, up 3.9% from the previous year, and 4.7% above the five-year average and 11.6% higher than the 10-year average.

  • Active residential listings rose 16.9% to 3,529 units by the end of September 2024. This was 43.3% above the five-year average and 4.6% above the 10-year average.

  • Months of inventory stood at 3.4 in September 2024, slightly up from 3.2 in September 2023. This measure represents how long it would take to sell all current listings at the current rate of sales.

source: OREB

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Bank of Canada Lowers Interest Rate Amid Easing Inflation and Economic Uncertainty

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate to 4.25%, with the Bank Rate set at 4.5% and the deposit rate at 4.25%. The Bank continues its policy of balance sheet normalization.

Globally, the economy grew by approximately 2.5% in the second quarter, in line with forecasts from the Bank's July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Economic growth in the United States exceeded expectations, driven by consumer spending, though the labor market has slowed. Growth in the euro area was supported by tourism and services, while manufacturing lagged. Inflation in both regions is easing. In China, weak domestic demand has hindered economic growth. Since July, global financial conditions have further relaxed, with bond yields decreasing. The Canadian dollar has seen a modest appreciation, largely due to a weaker US dollar. Oil prices are lower than projected in the July MPR.

In Canada, the economy expanded by 2.1% in the second quarter, primarily due to government spending and business investment. This growth was slightly above the July forecast, though early indicators suggest weaker economic activity through June and July. The labor market remains sluggish, with minimal employment changes in recent months, although wage growth continues to outpace productivity.

As expected, inflation fell to 2.5% in July. The Bank's preferred measures of core inflation averaged around 2.5%, and the percentage of consumer price index components rising above 3% is now close to historical levels. High shelter price inflation remains the largest contributor to overall inflation but is beginning to ease. Inflation in certain services also remains elevated.

Given the ongoing reduction in inflationary pressures, the Governing Council decided to lower the policy interest rate by another 25 basis points. Excess supply in the economy continues to push inflation downward, while rising prices in shelter and some services are keeping inflation elevated. The Governing Council is closely monitoring these opposing forces. Future monetary policy decisions will be based on incoming data and their impact on inflation forecasts. The Bank remains committed to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Source:www.BankofCanada.ca

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Ottawa’s Real Estate Market Gathers Momentum in July 2024

The Ottawa real estate market showed signs of growth in July 2024, with 1,241 homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB). This represents a 13.6% increase compared to July 2023.

However, home sales were still 7.1% below the five-year average and 8.8% below the 10-year average for July. Despite this, year-to-date sales figures were encouraging, with 8,349 units sold by July 2024, marking a 5.5% increase from the same period in 2023.

The market’s performance is a positive signal amidst the usual summer slowdown, reflecting growing buyer confidence and a steady stream of new listings. Recent policy changes, including interest rate cuts and extended mortgage amortization periods for first-time buyers, could further support the market, though supply challenges remain.

Price Trends

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) provides a detailed view of price trends:

The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price in July 2024 was $648,900, up slightly by 0.1% from July 2023.

Single-family homes had a benchmark price of $734,700, down 0.1% year-over-year.

Townhouse/row units saw a benchmark price of $506,100, an increase of 3.4% compared to last year.

The benchmark price for apartments was $422,800, a decrease of 0.9% from July 2023 levels.

The average price of homes sold in July 2024 stood at $679,610, reflecting a 2.1% decrease from July 2023. The year-to-date average price, however, showed a slight increase of 1.0%, reaching $681,082. The total dollar volume of home sales in July 2024 was $843.3 million, an 11.3% increase from July 2023.

Inventory and New Listings

New residential listings in July 2024 increased by 17.1% from the previous year, totaling 2,231 new listings. Active residential listings at the end of July 2024 numbered 3,480 units, a substantial 37.0% increase from July 2023. The months of inventory, which indicates how long it would take to sell current listings at the current sales pace, rose to 2.8 months, up from 2.3 months in July 2023.

These statistics reflect a market that is gaining momentum, with increasing buyer activity and a growing inventory, although challenges around supply and affordability persist.

Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board

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Where was the Spring Market?
Despite strong sales in the first quarter, Canada’s spring housing market was subdued across many regions in Q2 of 2024. The Bank of Canada's first overnight lending rate cut in June sparked significant interest, but did not lead to a noticeable resurgence of homebuyers. This cautious stance contrasts with rising inventory levels, resulting in more balanced market conditions.Royal LePage® forecasts a 9.0% increase in the aggregate price of a home in Canada in Q4 2024 compared to the same quarter last year. Nationally, home prices are expected to see continued moderate appreciation throughout the year's second half.“Canada’s housing market is struggling to find a consistent rhythm, as the last three months clearly demonstrated,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Nationally, home prices rose while the number of properties bought and sold sagged; an unusual dynamic. The silver lining: inventory levels in many regions have climbed materially. This is the closest we’ve been to a balanced market in several years.”“This trend dominates activity in two of the country’s largest and most expensive markets, the greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver, where sales are down yet prices remain sticky,” Soper continued. “There are exceptions. In the prairie provinces and Quebec, low supply and tight competition persist.”


Q2 Reports Modest Uptick in Home Prices

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased by 1.9% year-over-year to $824,300 in Q2 2024. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price increased by 1.5%, despite a slowdown in activity in the country’s most expensive markets.By housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased by 2.2% year-over-year to $860,600, while the median price of a condominium increased by 1.6% year-over-year to $596,500. Quarter-over-quarter, the median price of a single-family detached home increased by 1.8%, while the median price of a condominium increased by 0.8%.


Sustained High Interest Rates Run Risk of Buyer Rush

Over the last two years, the national housing market has experienced fluctuations in home prices, with some regional exceptions, due to the impacts of higher interest rates. As the Bank of Canada balances lowering the key lending rate and controlling inflation, some housing market segments have stalled.“Canada’s housing market faces pent-up demand after two stifling years of high borrowing costs. While inflation control is crucial, persistently high rates are increasing the risk of a surge in demand when buyers inevitably return. New household formation and immigration keep fueling the need for housing, and a sudden release could create much market instability. This highlights the need for a more nuanced approach that balances inflation control with economic vitality,” added Soper.


Increased Borrowing Costs Hamper New Supply Creation

Elevated borrowing rates are not only dampening housing market activity but also stifling new home construction. Builders, heavily reliant on lending, are finding it increasingly difficult to finance new projects, exacerbating the housing shortage as the population grows.“Canada’s housing market faces complex challenges. While raising interest rates was crucial to fighting inflation, it has unintentionally choked off the essential flow of new housing supply. Higher borrowing costs, coupled with labor shortages in the construction trades and rising material prices, have made it economically unsustainable for developers to launch new projects. This creates a perfect storm – our population is growing steadily, yet we’re building far fewer homes than needed to meet demand. This situation urgently needs innovative solutions to ensure Canadians have access to affordable housing options,” concluded Soper.


Second Quarter Press Release Highlights:

  • Toronto and Vancouver report slower-than-usual market activity this spring as inventory builds, while demand continues to outpace supply in the prairie provinces and Quebec.
  • Quebec City records the highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (10.4%) in Q2 among the report’s major regions.
  • Royal LePage maintains its national year-end forecast, with prices expected to increase by 9.0% in Q4 2024 over the same period last year.
  • According to a Royal LePage survey conducted by Leger earlier this year, 51% of sidelined homebuyers said they would resume their search if interest rates reversed.
 
 

Source: Royal LePage Team Realty

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Navigating Mortgage Renewal: Key Considerations for Canadian Homeowners

More than half of Canadian mortgages are set to renew before the end of 2026. With the Bank of Canada reducing its key interest rate from 5.0% to 4.75% on June 5th, many homeowners are now contemplating whether to choose a fixed or variable rate upon renewal. Understanding the available options and anticipating changes is crucial to effectively managing today's dynamic mortgage landscape.

Current Situation

During the pandemic real estate boom, variable rates were historically lower, but this trend has reversed recently. Currently, the average five-year variable interest rate offered by mortgage lenders is around 6.7%, while fixed rates are typically at 5.6%. Variable mortgage rates depend on various economic factors, including the key overnight lending rate set by the Bank of Canada. Although the central bank recently cut its key rate for the first time in four years, it could change course if inflation rises in the coming months. Economists expect further cuts by the end of 2024, continuing into 2025 unless economic conditions shift significantly. Despite declining rates, the historically low rates of the past two decades are no longer expected.

Considerations for Variable Rates

For variable-rate mortgages, an increase in the prime rate, influenced by the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate, leads to higher mortgage payments. However, variable loans with fixed-payment options keep monthly payments unchanged, adjusting the mortgage amortization period instead. This results in a smaller proportion of each payment going towards repaying the principal.

Understanding Your Needs

Choosing between a fixed- and variable-rate mortgage depends largely on the borrower's risk tolerance and personal situation. Variable rates fluctuate, so consider if your lifestyle can accommodate these changes. Even if interest rates begin to fall, numerous economic factors influence their direction throughout your mortgage term. The right mortgage product depends on your short- and medium-term situation. If you're in a period of transition (career change, separation, etc.), a fixed rate might offer more stability.

Strategic Options for Borrowers

  • Fixed-Rate Mortgage with a Shorter Term: Amid economic uncertainty, many borrowers are opting for shorter-term fixed-rate mortgages (one, two, or three years). This approach allows borrowers to lock in predictable monthly payments without committing to the same rate long-term.
  • Hybrid-Rate Mortgage: This option combines features of both variable and fixed rates — part of the mortgage has a fixed interest rate, and the other has a variable rate. This allows borrowers to benefit from both stability and potential rate decreases.
  • Convertible Mortgage: This loan allows borrowers to convert a variable interest rate into a fixed-rate mortgage, or vice versa, before maturity. This flexibility helps adapt mortgage strategies to changing market conditions.

Consult a Professional

Ready to navigate your mortgage renewal with confidence? Contact us today! We can connect you with one of our trusted and experienced mortgage professionals who are ready to help you explore your options and find the best solution tailored to your needs. Whether you're considering a fixed or variable rate, they will provide personalized guidance to ensure you make an informed decision. 


Source: CBD

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Your Exclusive Real Estate Market Update

In May 2024, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reported a total of 1,545 homes sold through the MLS® System, marking a 9.2% decrease compared to May 2023. This figure was 3.7% lower than the five-year average and 13.2% below the ten-year average for May. Year-to-date, home sales reached 5,673 units over the first five months of the year, reflecting a 5.2% increase from the same period in 2023.

OREB President Curtis Fillier noted that Ottawa's early spring market remained steady, with an increase in new listings indicating growing seller confidence. However, some sellers may have awaited the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement before making decisions, as the first interest rate cut in four years occurred. Nevertheless, supply issues and high home prices persist as challenges despite positive economic indicators.

By the Numbers – Prices:

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

  • The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $651,300 in May 2024, a marginal gain of 1.2% from May 2023.

    • The benchmark price for single-family homes was $736,000, up 1.1% on a year-over-year basis in May.

    • By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $517,500, up 2.1% compared to a year earlier.

    • The benchmark apartment price was $425,000, up 2.0% from year-ago levels.

  • The average price of homes sold in May 2024 was $690,683 increasing 0.8% from May 2023. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $679,862, increasing by 1.8% from the first five months of 2023.

  • The dollar volume of all home sales in May 2024 was $1.06 billion, down 8.5% from the same month in 2023.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Prices will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings

  • The number of new listings saw an increase of 26.2% from May 2023. There were 3,034 new residential listings in May 2024. New listings were 23.2% above the five-year average and 10.2% above the 10-year average for the month of May.

  • Active residential listings numbered 3,552 units on the market at the end of May 2024, a gain of 59.4% from May 2023. Active listings were 72.2% above the five-year average and 2.9% below the 10-year average for the month of May.

  • Months of inventory numbered 2.3 at the end of May 2024, up from 1.3 in May 2023. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. 

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The trademarks REALTOR®, REALTORS®, and the REALTOR® logo are controlled by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify real estate professionals who are member’s of CREA. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by CREA and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.